Sparse-Servant
0x21bac188598c79a827cd54c2db710775a49f408f
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$107.24
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-233.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$88.50
$1.50
- YES
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
160 shares @ 12.6¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.40
$-1.80
- YES
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 23.1¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.34
$-1.97
- YES
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
1602 shares @ 14.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-236.52
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
1000 shares @ 72.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-727.99
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?
10 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$87.45Jul 27, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$9.67Jul 27, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$0.33Jul 26, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$10.54Jul 24, 18:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?$0.00Jul 24, 18:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 24, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$92.29Jul 23, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$2.38Jul 13, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$93.74Jul 13, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026?$10.00Jul 9, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 9, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$6.59Jul 1, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$200.00Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$350.00Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$120.00Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$720.75Jun 21, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$240.25Jun 21, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$57.23Jun 18, 19:30 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$132.79Jun 18, 05:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $84.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 20:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 18:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.