Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$4.3K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 116.6h
- 03:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 117h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 8¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 1¢+0.1pp
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $1.9K
- 1¢+0.4pp
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $2.0K
- 3¢-6.9pp
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $33.8K
- 1¢-0.1pp
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $1.3K
- 1¢+0.5pp
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $512.26
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $548.78
- 100¢+0.6pp
Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $16.2K
- 100¢+43.0pp
Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $36.4K
- 100¢+74.5pp
Lakers vs. Rockets
Other · Vol $9.2M
- 50¢-5.0pp
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Other · Vol $5.6M
- 0¢-52.4pp
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)
Other · Vol $2.7M
- 2¢-1.1pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 100¢+58.5pp
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Other · Vol $1.0M
- 44¢-4.5pp
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
Other · Vol $692.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).