Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?
Probability
18¢
1h
+5.1pp
24h
+15.0pp
24h Vol
$893.89
Liquidity
$552.28
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 13.3h
- 10:43SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 13h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:43PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.3pp
to 17¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 11¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 11¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 11¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 15¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 15¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 15¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 15¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.1pp
to 12¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.3pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.3pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).