Charming-Sensitivity
0x2df50477e68a95a28ff76233e8f770b9dd6557c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$120.05
Total PnL
$-334.91
Realised
$-6.47
Win rate
38%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
113 shares @ 36.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$86.44
$44.90
- YES
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
40 shares @ 20.6¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.26
$-0.05
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
99 shares @ 16.0¢·now 8.3¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$8.21
$-7.61
- NO
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
15 shares @ 56.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.10
$-0.30
- NO
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
10 shares @ 68.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$6.86
$0.01
- YES
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
30 shares @ 5.9¢·now 6.1¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.83
$0.07
- YES
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
50 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.35
$-1.99
- YES
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
231 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.46
- NO
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
197 shares @ 18.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-37.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.84Jul 29, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$0.90Jul 29, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$3.04Jul 29, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$6.95Jul 29, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$1.09Jul 29, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$2.07Jul 29, 03:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$2.42Jul 29, 02:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$2.87Jul 29, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$0.61Jul 28, 22:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$3.30Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$33.00Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$34.30Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$43.00Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$52.00Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$70.28Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$2.39Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$2.28Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$1.10Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$15.91Jul 28, 09:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$0.28Jul 28, 09:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $7.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 20:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 21:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.