Will there be exactly 6 major space weather events this week?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$375.26
Liquidity
$101.74
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 02:56SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 3h ago
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.2pp
to 31¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 36¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.6pp
to 40¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.2pp
to 40¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.3pp
to 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 19, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 25, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater whichAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).