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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 25, 2026

Will there be exactly 6 major space weather events this week?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$375.26

Liquidity

$101.74

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.8pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 02:56
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 02:56Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Resolve

    Market resolved 3h ago

    HIGH
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 29.2pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 36.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 39.6pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 38.2pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 38.3pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 19, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 25, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater whichAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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