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WeatherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 26, 2026

Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?

Probability

27¢

1h

+1.5pp

24h

-29.5pp

24h Vol

$265.71

Liquidity

$617.35

Probability (last 7 days)

-10.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 07:00Apr 25, 2026, 05:17
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 00:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 18.7h

    HIGH
  • 05:17Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 19h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -49.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -53.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -49.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -34.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -44.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -42.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -46.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -40.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -38.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -38.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -24.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -23.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -22.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -25.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -29.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -21.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -19.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -15.5pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 70¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).