Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7)
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$223.02
Liquidity
$7.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $7.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification brief
live monitoringThe market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: gettyimages.com.mx
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -15.4pp at 06:00 (to 1¢).
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is photographed in a tagged editorial photo on Getty Images on every day between June 1, 2026, and June 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify for a given date, the photo must list that date in Getty Images’ “Date created” field and be uploaded by 11:59 PM ET on the calendar day after this market’s final specified date. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or editing. If a tagged photo does not actually depict Donald Trump, or is materially mis-tagged (for example, with the wrong date), it will not qualify. Example of a date with no qualifying photos: April 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be Getty Images (https://www.gettyimages.com.mx/search/2/image?family=editorial&sort=newest&specificpeople=118600).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7)"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 06:31:14 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$223.02 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.6¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.