Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?
Probability
19¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-10.5pp
24h Vol
$5.51
Liquidity
$37.08
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 11pp over 24h
Now 19¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 29.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 3h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 3.1h
- 20:55SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-18.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: -34.0pp at 19:00 (to 20¢).
Show all 35 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · -25.0pp → 19¢
- 19:00 · -34.0pp → 20¢
- 17:00 · -32.0pp → 20¢
- 15:00 · -30.5pp → 21¢
- 14:00 · -30.0pp → 22¢
- 12:00 · -30.5pp → 23¢
- 11:00 · -29.5pp → 24¢
- 09:00 · -17.5pp → 37¢
- 07:00 · -12.5pp → 37¢
- 05:00 · -14.5pp → 38¢
- 03:00 · -3.5pp → 38¢
- 02:00 · -4.0pp → 37¢
- 01:00 · -4.0pp → 37¢
- 21:00 · -4.0pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · -19.5pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -13.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · -14.5pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · +24.5pp → 58¢
- 2d ago · +12.5pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +12.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +10.5pp → 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary@realDonaldTrumpTypeSocial media postConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (29.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.