Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit?
Probability
39¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$83.97
Liquidity
$581.93
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 107.9h
- 12:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 39¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 39¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 34¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 34¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 34¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 34¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 34¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
King Charles is scheduled to visit the White House from April 27 to April 30, 2026 (https://time.com/article/2026/04/01/king-charles-camilla-royal-state-visit-washington-america-trump/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring King Charles from April 27 through April 30, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and King Charles from April 27 through April 30, 2026. All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).