Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? (April 20 - 26)
Probability
39¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$218.80
Liquidity
$688.40
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 15.6h
- 08:24SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 16h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 39¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 44¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 52¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 54¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 36¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 36¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 36¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 36¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 36¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 36¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 35¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 35¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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