Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during coal announcement?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$4.3K
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: rollcall.com
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during coal announcement? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during coal announcement? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:59Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolved 16h ago
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 3¢+2.1
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $1.8M
- 39¢+16.9
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $533.8K
- 62¢-16.5
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $518.5K
- 0¢0.0
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $430.5K
- 0¢0.0
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $370.9K
- 0¢0.0
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $162.6K
Market Description
Donald Trump is scheduled to give an announcement regarding coal on June 4, 2026 at 3PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during remarks during the announcement scheduled for June 4, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about the event titled "The President makes an Announcement on Beautiful, Clean Coal" on June 4, 2026, 3PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by June 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during coal announcement?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:55:20 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.3pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 5, 2026 (2026-06-05T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.