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PoliticsExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Trump say "Muslim" during King Charles visit?

Probability

28¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-9.5pp

24h Vol

$10.60

Liquidity

$332.37

Probability (last 7 days)

-15.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:08
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 10pp over 24h

    Now 28¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 104.9h

    LOW
  • 15:08Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

King Charles is scheduled to visit the White House from April 27 to April 30, 2026 (https://time.com/article/2026/04/01/king-charles-camilla-royal-state-visit-washington-america-trump/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring King Charles from April 27 through April 30, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and King Charles from April 27 through April 30, 2026. All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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