Will Trump say "Podcast" or "TikTok" during WHCA Dinner events?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$185.61
Liquidity
$743.84
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 19¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $744 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:19SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 19¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 19¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 19¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 19¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 19¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.5pp
to 19¢
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 14h ago
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner events on April 25, 2026. (see: https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the WHCA Dinner events scheduled for April 25, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
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