Will Trump say "UFC" or "Dana White" this week? (April 20 - 26)
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-22.0pp
24h Vol
$15.63
Liquidity
$121.06
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 22pp over 24h
Now 18¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 10h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 10 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 10.3h
- 13:44SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:44PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 17¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 19¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 20¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 21¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 21¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 21¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 22¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 22¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 22¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 26¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 26¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 27¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 32¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 28¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).