Will Tesla reach $420 in April?
Probability
6¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$14.22
Liquidity
$1.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-50.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 6¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 133.4h
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -45.5pp
to 6¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -43.5pp
to 7¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.5pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 6¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 6¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 6¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 6¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 6¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 6¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 7¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.5pp
to 7¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.5pp
to 7¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 7¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 7¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 11¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 19¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).