Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?
Probability
8¢
1h
-5.9pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$37.2K
Liquidity
$3.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 8¢; -5.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Heavy volume on this book — 9.6× turnover
$37.2k traded against $3.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 15¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.1pp
to 19¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 25¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.1pp
to 36¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 30¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.6pp
to 33¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.6pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.6pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.9pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.9pp
to 17¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.1pp
to 21¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 14¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.9pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 4¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Valve adds the map Cache to the official map pool by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Cache is added to the Active Duty pool, it must remain there continuously for at least 48 hours for this market to resolve to “Yes”. Temporary additions (e.g., for testing) that are reversed within 48 hours will not count. If Cache is added after the deadline, this market will resolve to “No”, even if the addition was announced earlier. For the purpose of this market, “Valve” refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series. For the purpose of this market, the “official map pool” refers to the Active Duty map group in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2), which consists of the maps eligible for both competitive matchmaking and professional tournaments. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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