Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?
Probability
34¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$27.35
Liquidity
$6.8K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 34¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 343.5h
- 16:29SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-5.0pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.5pp at 4d ago (to 54¢).
Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
- 1d ago · +9.0pp → 44¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · -11.0pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · -20.0pp → 38¢
- 4d ago · +8.0pp → 39¢
- 4d ago · +24.5pp → 54¢
- 4d ago · +20.0pp → 53¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by VOX (VOX) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by VOX (VOX) in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Alerts
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