Will XRP dip to $1.40 on May 13?
Probability
0¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$6.1K
Liquidity
$2.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 14, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.3× turnover
$6.1k traded against $2.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 14, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:14SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 04:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 0h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
xrpReason
XRP / Ripple token market — Crypto.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will XRP dip to $1.40 on May 13?"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 04:14:16 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.0pp in the last 24 hours, -3.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 14, 2026 (2026-05-14T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$6.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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