Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Sonmez (+1.5)
Probability
57¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+23.5pp
24h Vol
$277.31
Liquidity
$8.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 24pp over 24h
Now 57¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $8.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 52¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 176.2h
Price movement
+23.5pp over the last 24h, now 57¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 80¢+34.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Zeynep Sonmez
Sports · Vol $459.47
- 73¢+32.0
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Sonmez
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 40¢-10.5
Pegula vs. Sonmez: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 62¢+29.0
Pegula vs. Sonmez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 59¢+8.5
Pegula vs. Sonmez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 35¢-15.5
Pegula vs. Sonmez: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 32¢-18.5
Pegula vs. Sonmez: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 19¢-31.5
Pegula vs. Sonmez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Zeynep Sonmez in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Pegula" if Jessica Pegula wins by 2 or more sets than Zeynep Sonmez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Sonmez." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
pegulaReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "pegula" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Sonmez (+1.5)"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:47:57 GMT, YES is priced at 57% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +23.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 14, 2026 (2026-05-14T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$277.31 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $277.31. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $8.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
