Game Handicap: Shinozuka (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5)

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 19.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the table tennis match between Hiroto Shinozuka and Yuanyu Chen in the WTT Contender Zagreb, Male Single, originally scheduled for June 13, 2026 at 6:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shinozuka" if Hiroto Shinozuka wins by 2 or more games than Yuanyu Chen, based on the final completed match score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Chen." For the purposes of this market, game margin is calculated using total games won across the full match. Any forfeited points or games will count toward final settlement. If the match is completed, this market will resolve based on the final completed match score. If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. For game spread markets, an outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, if play stops with one player leading 2-0 in games in a best-of-5 match, the minimum completion would be 3-0 in games; any game spread outcome already guaranteed under that minimum completion will resolve accordingly, while undetermined spreads will resolve 50-50. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTT Contender results.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.