The market moved
-55.5ppin 24h · now 2¢
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on May 18?
Business · resolves May 18 · vol $27.62
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 55.5pp shift. Resolution depends on split-adjusted prices as displayed on yahoo finance — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 2.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.