The market moved
-0.5ppin 24h · now 25¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Geopolitics · resolves Apr 30 · vol $179.70
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 25¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.