The market moved
-2.0ppin 24h · now 25¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 18?
Weather · resolves May 18 · vol $837.10
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 25¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 18.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.