The market moved
-39.2ppin 24h · now 2¢
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 18?
Business · resolves May 18 · vol $21.11
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 39.2pp shift. Resolution depends on split-adjusted prices as displayed on yahoo finance — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 3.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.