Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 18?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 57.0pp shift. Resolution depends on wall street journal — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.
• Market resolves in 4.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.