The market moved
-10.0ppin 24h · now 40¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Jun 30 · vol $41.4K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 40¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.0pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: US government — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
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