The market moved
-0.1ppin 24h · now 0¢
Will Douglas T. Muck Jr. be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Politics · resolves May 19 · vol $389.78
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 13.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.