Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to -0.4%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 1¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 12.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.