The market moved
-2.5ppin 24h · now 10¢
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May?
Macro · resolves Jun 11 · vol $649.72
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 10¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on opec.org — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: opec.org — https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.