Warm-Habitat
0x00497937c03436c8b1c033123d282688c7976034
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$44.4K
Total PnL
$1.5K
Realised
$-94.38
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
8032 shares @ 81.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.0K
$489.86
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
5110 shares @ 85.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.6K
$247.80
- NO
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
3100 shares @ 82.1¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.9K
$393.25
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
2567 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.5K
$173.27
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
2114 shares @ 89.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.9K
$38.21
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?
1700 shares @ 83.5¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.7K
$232.55
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1500 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.5K
$16.75
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 78.9¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.1K
$-103.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
1066 shares @ 94.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.0K
$-0.33
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 86.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$973.50
$113.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$202.44Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$210.01Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$100.00Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$300.00Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$331.59Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$200.00Jul 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?$88.42Jul 28, 11:43 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.13Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$2.30Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$4.97Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$35.00Jul 27, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?$25.71Jul 27, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?$160.00Jul 27, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?$182.00Jul 27, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$47.00Jul 27, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$26.18Jul 27, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$90.01Jul 27, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$43.20Jul 27, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$85.00Jul 27, 02:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $44.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 12:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.