Comfortable-Pinto
0x00af3c1a7403fe2fa457d6ae6a5ed4fa1d149da1
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$29.37
Total PnL
$-5.7K
Realised
$-631.04
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
7 shares @ 92.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.22
$0.19
- NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
6 shares @ 96.1¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.09
$0.08
- NO
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5 shares @ 94.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.06
$0.29
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.13
$0.01
- NO
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
2 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$2.19
$0.01
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.47
$0.03
- NO
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
1 shares @ 94.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?$1.69Jul 1, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?$1.05Jul 1, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?$1.89Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$1.80Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$3.30Jun 18, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iraq win on 2026-06-16?$6.74Jun 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$3.01Jun 16, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq win on 2026-06-16?$6.41Jun 16, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$1.42Jun 13, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$1.34Jun 13, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$7.73Jun 1, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 12+ times in May?$5.43Jun 1, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 9-11 times in May?$9.87Jun 1, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMGTA VI released before June 2026?$1.05Jun 1, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 12+ times in May?$5.02May 31, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 9-11 times in May?$9.03May 31, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$6.83May 30, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026?$1.50May 27, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$1.35May 27, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$1.34May 24, 01:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $8.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 01:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 07:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.