Muffled-Halfsister
0x0110c0b710907fc27a3b090a29327bca2fedaf5d
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$185.39
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-17.01
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
181 shares @ 77.9¢·now 79.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$143.59
$2.36
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 76.9¢·now 78.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.88
$0.19
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
13 shares @ 47.2¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$5.14
$-0.86
- NO
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
17 shares @ 39.1¢·now 26.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$4.47
$-2.17
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
5 shares @ 85.9¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.28
$-0.02
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
13 shares @ 29.9¢·now 30.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.97
$0.07
- YES
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 1.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.63
$2.63
- YES
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
60 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.24
$0.24
- YES
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
20 shares @ 11.5¢·now 13.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.70
$0.39
- YES
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series?
375 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.69
$-0.56
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 28?$2.11Jul 29, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.03Jul 29, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$4.32Jul 29, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$11.69Jul 29, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.08Jul 29, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$63.69Jul 29, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.89Jul 29, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 28?$5.26Jul 29, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMColorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres$6.86Jul 29, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 28?$2.06Jul 29, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMLogan Henderson: Strikeouts O/U 3.5$1.37Jul 29, 05:08 UTC
- REDEEMLogan Henderson: Strikeouts O/U 2.5$1.12Jul 29, 05:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 28?$1.08Jul 29, 05:02 UTC
- REDEEMHouston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels$1.89Jul 29, 04:48 UTC
- REDEEMJake Bennett: Strikeouts O/U 2.5$2.78Jul 29, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres$1.02Jul 29, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$1.02Jul 29, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$1.15Jul 29, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$1.04Jul 29, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$1.01Jul 29, 03:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $4.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 19:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.