0x013246d9e5fd30d3ddd2e08246f419de3afec314
0x013246d9e5fd30d3ddd2e08246f419de3afec314
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$3.98
Total PnL
$-0.12
Realised
$-0.60
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.03
$0.45
- NO
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
2 shares @ 81.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$1.95
$0.36
- YES
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
4 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.32
Recent activity
- REWARD$20.68Feb 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$36.19Feb 12, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$36.72Feb 12, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?$5.71Feb 12, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?$5.72Feb 12, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$69.79Feb 12, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$18.51Feb 12, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$18.00Feb 12, 02:47 UTC
- REWARD$27.90Feb 12, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$15.41Feb 11, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$152.57Feb 11, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$5.17Feb 11, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$5.17Feb 11, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?$50.91Feb 11, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?$51.62Feb 11, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$131.97Feb 11, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$133.76Feb 11, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$50.81Feb 11, 10:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$16.89Feb 11, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$73.44Feb 11, 10:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $49.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 7, 12:27 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 13, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.