Square-Donkey
0x01bb646653f94733c16783fcdcebcbc0e4692c9c
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
68
Open notional
$69.11
Total PnL
$-117.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
24 shares @ 10.5¢·now 23.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.60
$3.05
- NO
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?
6 shares @ 65.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.95
$0.80
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6 shares @ 85.7¢·now 77.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.48
$-0.45
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
6 shares @ 54.1¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.54
$0.12
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
5 shares @ 84.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$3.49
$-0.47
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
15 shares @ 14.0¢·now 22.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.26
$1.20
- NO
Will Hammarby Fotboll win on 2026-07-23?
6 shares @ 56.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$3.16
$-0.21
- NO
Will Paide Linnameeskond win on 2026-07-23?
3 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.79
$-0.02
- KT WIZ
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. KT Wiz
5 shares @ 43.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.72
$0.36
- NO
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-07-23?
4 shares @ 73.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.71
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$2.00Jul 23, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$1.13Jul 23, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.21Jul 23, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$2.49Jul 23, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$1.97Jul 23, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays$1.62Jul 23, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs$3.81Jul 23, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charlotte FC win on 2026-07-22?$7.17Jul 23, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMConnecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever$3.29Jul 23, 02:40 UTC
- REDEEMThe Hundred, Women: Southern Brave vs Welsh Fire$2.85Jul 23, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-07-22?$1.14Jul 22, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.49Jul 22, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.49Jul 22, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels$2.81Jul 22, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?$1.30Jul 22, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamburg European Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Yulia Putintseva$1.49Jul 22, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.04Jul 22, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.12Jul 22, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-07-25?$1.95Jul 22, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Orgryte IS win on 2026-07-24?$2.52Jul 22, 22:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 13:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 09:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.