Academic-Forecast
0x03141505c79f7d82ea4d426105cb228b4ed92f6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$649.08
Total PnL
$-68.61
Realised
$157.89
Win rate
53%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- YES
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
645 shares @ 57.4¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$383.57
$13.81
- YES
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?
198 shares @ 58.4¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$119.50
$4.10
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
275 shares @ 20.2¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.37
$-21.07
- YES
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
23 shares @ 69.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$16.74
$1.02
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
95 shares @ 20.2¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.67
$-4.40
- YES
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027?
16 shares @ 70.6¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$12.40
$1.11
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
143 shares @ 12.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.72
$-6.91
- YES
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 16.3¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.68
$-0.47
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 22.7¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.40
$-1.70
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
150 shares @ 34.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.76
$-45.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?$0.18Aug 19, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$0.88Aug 19, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?$1.10Aug 19, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?$3.03Aug 19, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?$5.79Aug 19, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$1.00Aug 17, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain snap election called in 2026?$1.73Aug 17, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$0.88Aug 16, 07:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$0.29Aug 16, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain snap election called in 2026?$0.56Aug 16, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$0.78Aug 16, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?$5.41Aug 15, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?$3.02Aug 15, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?$14.18Aug 15, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$1.18Aug 14, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$0.45Aug 14, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?$1.21Aug 13, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?$1.76Aug 13, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?$1.13Aug 13, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$3.55Aug 12, 21:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
59 closed markets, 53% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 10:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 17:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.