Academic-Forecast
0x03141505c79f7d82ea4d426105cb228b4ed92f6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$187.96
Total PnL
$-104.36
Realised
$-66.24
Win rate
23%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?
54 shares @ 66.8¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$35.91
$-0.19
- NO
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
71 shares @ 41.5¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$28.80
$-0.70
- NO
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
20 shares @ 68.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.87
$0.07
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
63 shares @ 26.3¢·now 20.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.98
$-3.57
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
259 shares @ 3.3¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.12
$2.65
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
50 shares @ 24.6¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.80
$-2.56
- YES
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
15 shares @ 46.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.12
$-0.83
- YES
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
10 shares @ 51.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.95
$-0.15
- YES
Will June 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
164 shares @ 4.1¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.42
$-2.27
- YES
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
32 shares @ 13.1¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.83
$-0.32
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?$0.47Jun 14, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?$0.50Jun 14, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$1.52Jun 14, 14:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.37Jun 14, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$1.65Jun 14, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.21Jun 14, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$1.34Jun 14, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$1.54Jun 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.69Jun 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.81Jun 14, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$3.25Jun 14, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close its airspace by July 31?$1.95Jun 14, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close its airspace by August 31?$2.15Jun 14, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$2.60Jun 14, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$2.60Jun 14, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$1.75Jun 14, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$1.85Jun 14, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$1.84Jun 14, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$1.40Jun 14, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill June 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?$0.00Jun 14, 07:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 12:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 14:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.