Spain snap election called in 2026?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$40.37
Liquidity
$18.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5997.2h
- 02:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5997h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 21¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 22¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 22¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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