Straight-Apprehension
0x0362bb926368b144e0ff98f6828a251e4cb6449e
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$107.1K
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-46.29
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10000 shares @ 54.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.8K
$450.00
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4357 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$185.76
- YES
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10000 shares @ 45.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.0K
$-450.00
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4000 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$379.41
- NOTHING
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
3000 shares @ 95.1¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$40.17
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2400 shares @ 91.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$2.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
2000 shares @ 93.3¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$87.33
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2000 shares @ 93.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$33.00
- NO
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?
2000 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.9K
$5.00
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 91.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$60.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Guarani FC SP win on 2026-07-27?$0.00Jul 28, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: AC Goianiense (-1.5)$0.00Jul 28, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: CR Brasil (-1.5)$0.00Jul 28, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Atlanta win on 2026-07-27?$99.99Jul 28, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Guayaquil City FC vs. CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador end in a draw?$0.00Jul 28, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMKA Akureyri vs. Thor Akureyri: Thor Akureyri O/U 0.5$0.00Jul 28, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$0.00Jul 28, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$200.00Jul 28, 01:58 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.19Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?$44.16Jul 28, 00:08 UTC
- REWARD$3.45Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$0.62Jul 27, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$4.00Jul 27, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWelltower (WELL) Q2 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 12%-15%?$200.00Jul 27, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$15.32Jul 27, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Guarani FC SP win on 2026-07-27?$9.73Jul 27, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$17.50Jul 27, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$18.04Jul 27, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$0.98Jul 27, 22:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $38.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 18:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.