Hairy-Absence
0x0435111a4edb491825d636c38a62d51cc20ecf1d
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
125
Open notional
$412.16
Total PnL
$-8.7K
Realised
$-669.88
Win rate
10%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- NO
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
236 shares @ 26.5¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$188.75
$126.24
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
1255 shares @ 24.9¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$175.71
$-136.78
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
150 shares @ 18.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.68
$-14.32
- YES
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
154 shares @ 13.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.54
$-8.46
- YES
Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
125 shares @ 17.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 25, 2027$6.87
$-15.13
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
35 shares @ 34.0¢·now 15.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.36
$-6.64
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
185 shares @ 27.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.35
$-45.65
- YES
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?
29 shares @ 33.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.08
$-5.53
- YES
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
52 shares @ 6.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.48
$-1.64
- YES
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
28 shares @ 7.1¢·now 4.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.34
$-0.66
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 20, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
39 closed markets, 10% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $129.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.