Novel-Sunday
0x04614caf46934679b9b59058c4b8c82c6fdea79a
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$104.67
Total PnL
$-504.32
Realised
$11.93
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
176 shares @ 56.8¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.67
$4.72
- YES
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?
1183 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-161.44
- YES
Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US government shutdown by October 1?
956 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-161.21
- NO
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
294 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
127 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24?
98 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-13.78
- YES
Will Trump say "Drone" during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?
98 shares @ 38.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 9, 2025$0.00
$-38.00
- YES
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on September 1?
90 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Polish strike on Russia by September 30?
86 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$101.68May 17, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?$100.52May 17, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?$96.22May 16, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev$89.87May 16, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev$90.23May 16, 06:34 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$63.35May 16, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?$32.26May 16, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$60.13May 12, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12?$10.21May 12, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?$20.23May 12, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$92.80May 12, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$72.70May 5, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$72.88May 4, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$63.61Apr 26, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Abuse" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$2.92Mar 25, 07:33 UTC
- REDEEM100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?$2.92Mar 25, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curtis Sliwa drop out?$21.08Oct 28, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24?$13.78Oct 20, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUY100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?$2.57Oct 13, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?$2.00Oct 13, 21:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $47.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 8, 03:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 20:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".