Wide-Eyed-Distribution
0x04851d53c9b32f1818e0d962ba2852ba3f1ef429
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.32
Total PnL
$-92.14
Realised
$4.31
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
129 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.32
$-0.71
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
2135 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.15
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1683 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.05
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026?
1050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
630 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.04
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
525 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- DPLUS KIA
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner
505 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.05
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
420 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
299 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?
247 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.94
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.05Jul 16, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 16, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.73Jul 7, 15:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.08Jul 4, 01:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$2.13Jul 1, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$5.26Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.03Jun 24, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.04Jun 24, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$5.01Jun 24, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$4.99Jun 24, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jun 24, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$5.11Jun 16, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.88Jun 16, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$4.58Jun 16, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.49Jun 16, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$6.67Jun 16, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$0.86Jun 16, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.00Jun 16, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down on June 13?$5.58Jun 13, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on June 13?$5.00Jun 13, 05:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 08:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 07:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.