0x05b408dbe8f4a7c0e1c0232ec2970a84af46d074
0x05b408dbe8f4a7c0e1c0232ec2970a84af46d074
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$71.97
Total PnL
$-24.79
Realised
$0.08
Win rate
50%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
15 shares @ 91.5¢·now 98.4¢·exp May 31, 2026$15.18
$1.06
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
11 shares @ 84.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$11.36
$1.76
- YES
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?
10 shares @ 89.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$9.64
$0.97
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
6 shares @ 84.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$5.91
$0.91
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$5.88
$0.88
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$5.03
$0.03
- NO
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$4.24
$0.34
- YES
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
3 shares @ 48.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$3.08
$1.58
- NO
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
3 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.50
$0.00
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 88.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.17
$0.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.48Jul 6, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$0.37Jul 6, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.11Jun 6, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$0.05Jun 6, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$1.54May 16, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$0.11May 16, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$1.37May 16, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$1.50May 16, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$2.09May 16, 08:17 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?$0.45May 15, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$0.05May 13, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$1.90May 11, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.53May 11, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$2.07May 11, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by May 15?$1.64May 10, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 15?$1.50May 9, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$1.50May 9, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$1.97May 8, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$0.09May 8, 17:34 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?$0.70May 5, 16:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 20:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 15:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.