Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Probability
95¢
1h
+1.9pp
24h
+5.3pp
24h Vol
$32.7K
Liquidity
$31.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 08:34SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 5.3pp in 24h with 1.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 92¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 95¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 94¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 91¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 92¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 91¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 93¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 93¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 92¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.9pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.4pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 87¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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