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PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 12, 2026

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Probability

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-2.7pp

24h Vol

$722.81

Liquidity

$26.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 14:07Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 14:06Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -7.8pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -10.9pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -10.6pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -10.9pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.6pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.4pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.7pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPeru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Category · Politics

Market Description

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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