Short-Term-Nightgown
0x070800b57ea1606dee46b649e7b5a1767a15f218
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
114
Open notional
$52.76
Total PnL
$-134.15
Realised
$21.16
Win rate
90%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 114- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
97 shares @ 12.7¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.30
$-5.07
- YES
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
62 shares @ 15.8¢·now 10.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.69
$-3.03
- YES
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 44.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.33
$5.34
- YES
Will FC Košice vs. AS Trenčín end in a draw?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.69
$-0.31
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
74 shares @ 8.9¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.99
$-3.59
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
81 shares @ 12.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.03
$-7.70
- YES
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?
24 shares @ 21.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.90
$-3.09
- YES
Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 28.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.63
$0.64
- YES
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of July?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.51
$-0.49
- YES
Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
81 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.8¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.46
$0.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill A Just Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.01Jul 29, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s remarks not air?$1.00Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A Just Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.05Jul 28, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.94Jul 28, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30?$1.18Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$0.99Jul 28, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.05Jul 28, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barrett Pfeiffer be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 3)?$0.99Jul 28, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Košice vs. AS Trenčín end in a draw?$5.19Jul 27, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMRipCars FDV above $20M one day after launch?$0.00Jul 26, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?$1.35Jul 26, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?$0.89Jul 26, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLHyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?$1.24Jul 26, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?$0.31Jul 26, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMOver $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?$0.00Jul 25, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tyrell Fortune be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$0.08Jul 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crysencio Summerville play for West Ham in 2026-27?$1.04Jul 25, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crysencio Summerville play for West Ham in 2026-27?$0.90Jul 25, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crysencio Summerville play for West Ham in 2026-27?$0.09Jul 25, 11:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 01:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.