Untimely-Mood
0x0711e162e05349de3d87626dea4285d08537f03c
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$698.22
Total PnL
$-595.53
Realised
$972.32
Win rate
72%
101 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
710 shares @ 93.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$695.98
$31.00
- YES
Netanyahu out by July 31?
1121 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.68
$-13.09
- YES
Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election?
1119 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.56
$-0.56
- NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
14389 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-43.47
- NO
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in March?
4013 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.74
- YES
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?
3307 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-11.43
- YES
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
2970 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.07
- YES
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?
2654 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.77
- YES
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
2526 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.32
- YES
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in August?
2472 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2025$0.00
$-3.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?$2.63Jul 28, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$11.12Jul 28, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$6.27Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by July 31, 2026?$0.39Jul 28, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?$1.90Jul 28, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?$0.30Jul 28, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?$2.54Jul 28, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?$3.00Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?$3.33Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?$3.40Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$1.18Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.17Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$0.01Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.01Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?$0.01Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?$0.01Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?$5.71Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$0.29Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.4% and 0.0%?$4.53Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?$15.51Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
68/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 101 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
101 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 101 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.