Hopeful-Celeriac
0x0726afe07cf6e650f43193f9f90d1f03fbef369c
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-659.32
Realised
$34.02
Win rate
69%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
New pandemic in 2026?
4286 shares @ 7.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$407.14
$107.15
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
1090 shares @ 36.4¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$332.45
$-64.80
- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
586 shares @ 36.7¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$131.84
$-83.44
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1111 shares @ 23.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$127.74
$-127.74
- YES
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
820 shares @ 24.1¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$110.70
$-86.53
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
600 shares @ 35.8¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.00
$-131.09
- YES
Natural Disaster in 2026?
300 shares @ 32.1¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.00
$-42.37
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
56 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-6.65
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.14Jul 29, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.01Jul 29, 00:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$1.20Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 23:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.20Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1.02Jul 28, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$1.15Jul 28, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.19Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 18:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$1.25Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.27Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.01Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$1.02Jul 28, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.03Jul 28, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$1.15Jul 28, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$1.01Jul 28, 05:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 01:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.