Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom
0x0787a58e205a70320db638113fe8da18c8800ca3
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$10.2K
Total PnL
$3.4K
Realised
$3.4K
Win rate
46%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1556 shares @ 91.3¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.5K
$46.84
- NO
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
1648 shares @ 87.4¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$-80.27
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
784 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$782.82
$38.21
- NO
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
935 shares @ 70.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$757.40
$102.86
- NO
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
896 shares @ 76.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$738.80
$50.85
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
750 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$716.25
$48.75
- NO
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
484 shares @ 91.9¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$468.89
$23.80
- NO
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?
362 shares @ 86.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$346.17
$32.28
- NO
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
403 shares @ 84.1¢·now 85.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$345.34
$6.18
- NO
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?
336 shares @ 82.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$290.21
$15.18
Recent activity
- MERGEUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?$93.03Jul 29, 10:14 UTC
- MERGEWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$250.00Jul 29, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$10.00Jul 29, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?$2.01Jul 29, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMJay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 30?$140.00Jul 29, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?$14.88Jul 29, 01:19 UTC
- MERGEU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$20.00Jul 29, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$14.26Jul 29, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$31.45Jul 29, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.89Jul 29, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$15.71Jul 29, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$31.05Jul 29, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$4.54Jul 29, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$3.87Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYJay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 30?$138.54Jul 28, 23:14 UTC
- MERGEUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?$50.00Jul 28, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?$8.00Jul 28, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?$4.15Jul 28, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?$79.11Jul 28, 18:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $51.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.