0x083cb1a18521739fa1018a86b26488e64d6ba6ed
0x083cb1a18521739fa1018a86b26488e64d6ba6ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$4.9K
Total PnL
$-271.34
Realised
$9.46
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
388 shares @ 95.4¢·now 96.6¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$374.58
$4.58
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
350 shares @ 85.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$330.66
$30.67
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
325 shares @ 73.8¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$320.40
$80.40
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
253 shares @ 94.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$246.85
$6.85
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
282 shares @ 71.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$243.66
$43.66
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
243 shares @ 88.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$212.61
$-2.39
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
210 shares @ 95.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$207.45
$7.45
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
217 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$201.09
$1.09
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
215 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$201.08
$1.08
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
278 shares @ 72.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$190.28
$-9.72
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$128.62Jul 27, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$202.00Jul 24, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$196.82Jul 24, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$121.20Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?$121.50Jul 23, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$108.53Jul 23, 10:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$106.39Jul 23, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$19.88Jul 23, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$4.29Jul 23, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$2.16Jul 23, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$4.44Jul 22, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$15.65Jul 22, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$121.20Jul 22, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$152.81Jul 22, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$121.20Jul 22, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$120.59Jul 22, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$281.18Jul 22, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$120.37Jul 20, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$121.20Jul 20, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$272.26Jul 20, 07:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $112.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 20:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 11:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.