Winged-Nation
0x08a6e4da67d93ab30bb3e4c88c550977866af3cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
192
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$288.41
Realised
$206.34
Win rate
93%
76 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 192- NO
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
341 shares @ 84.1¢·now 90.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$308.93
$22.45
- NO
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
322 shares @ 78.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$307.06
$53.50
- NO
USMCA extended in 2026?
290 shares @ 54.1¢·now 60.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$173.89
$17.17
- NO
Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
205 shares @ 69.9¢·now 83.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$170.02
$26.87
- YES
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
272 shares @ 61.1¢·now 61.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$165.91
$-0.26
- NO
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
144 shares @ 78.6¢·now 72.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$104.26
$-8.83
- NO
Will Viggo Björck win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
92 shares @ 94.3¢·now 98.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$90.70
$3.66
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
106 shares @ 79.8¢·now 69.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$73.18
$-11.42
- NO
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
90 shares @ 65.6¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$71.34
$12.51
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?
61 shares @ 73.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.70
$10.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$1.17Jul 29, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.72Jul 29, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.70Jul 29, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$0.02Jul 29, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$0.41Jul 29, 04:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.67Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026?$4.59Jul 29, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.55Jul 29, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.65Jul 29, 02:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 02:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$3.65Jul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$9.34Jul 28, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.24Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$4.45Jul 28, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$2.97Jul 28, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?$0.75Jul 28, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.13Jul 28, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$3.81Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$2.90Jul 28, 17:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 76 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
76 closed markets, 93% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 76 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.