Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$567.90
Liquidity
$41.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5981.3h
- 18:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at 2d ago (to 19¢).
Show all 33 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:43 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 17:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 15:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 14:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 12:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 11:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 09:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 08:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 06:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 05:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 03:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 02:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 00:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 23:00 · -5.5pp → 14¢
- 21:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 20¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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